Nokia Lumia sales predictions appear

Nokia Lumia sales predictions appearWith adverts popping up everywhere, positive reviews and pre-order numbers looking good, you certainly wouldn’t think there was anything to worry about. However, a Forbes story quotes Pierre Ferragu, an analyst from Bernstein Research, who casts doubt on the Lumia handsets.

With no breakthrough innovation, we believe Nokia’s new phones are unlikely to get traction in a highly concentrated high-end. Second, we don’t believe Lumia phones are competitively priced. Third, we believe in economics of increasing returns for mobile ecosystems and judge rather unlikely that Windows can gain critical mass against Android and iOS. Fourth, we have seen evidences of lack of traction for the Windows operating system over the last 12 months and challenge the idea that the Nokia brand can make a meaningful difference today.

There’s definitely an element of guesswork here and, although other analysts have chipped in with similar predictions, we’ve not seen those concrete sales figures just yet. An update to the story states that sales of the Lumia handsets are “likely” to be less than a million for the entire quarter, although this is another prediction.

Link – Forbes

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  • Yeah, I love “analysts”. I reckon the reason WP didn’t get traction is that it wasn’t so widespread just yet. Nokia is pushing hard with Lumia launch which is a good thing as people will actually start noticing there’s a viable alternative to Android and Apple. After playing with Lumia 800 for couple fo days I’m confident it has pretty much all the necessary features to compete in the smartphone market. Lumia is just a start for Nokia, let’s wait for new handsets and possibly tablets to be launched next year and I reckon WP *will* gain a solid traction after all. Let’s wait and see, not listen to analysts as they always seem to be very sceptic.

    • Anonymous

      I’m not sure how successful it will be.

      The mass market generally are either happy to pay over the odds for an iPhone or want something cheap (Android).

      The Lumia seems stuck in a no mans land inbetween. Although I have no doubt it’s a lovely phone it isn’t either high end or bargain priced.

      • Anonymous

        I’m always a little dubious of “predictions” :) We’ll see how the sales stack up,:)

        Leigh Geary

  • Anonymous

    The only way WP7 devices will gain any sort of traction or recognition is if they practically give them away without contractual requirements, at least for a while.  Ideally, this would’ve happened at launch time, instead of the lackluster disaster in it’s place. That’s the price Microsoft must pay for waiting so long to attempt relevance in the mobility market. They need to do something to avoid a next-of-Kin scenario…

    I might consider the new Lumia 800 as a look-see purchase if it were around $50.  So far, it’s the only WP7 device I’d even consider at a bargain, non-contract price.

    If it involves a 2 year contract, the pool of potential purchasers will remain minuscule for WP7 devices :(

  • Craig

    I think the WP7 phones WILL gain traction when you take into account my latest post relating to China sales growth.  Nokia has the market share there and the Lumia might well make the difference there.

  • Martin

    The thing is, there is not enough choice.
    If MS could get windows onto the galaxy s 2 I think they could well get better traction.

    • SilentBob

      You mean like the Samsung Focus S that they have stateside?

      I would personally prefer something along the lines of the HTC Titan, but with a smaller screen. Say 4″ to 4.3″.

      Biggest drawback so far for me is, with non expandable memory, they should be offering 32GB & 64GB handsets. Certainly not 8GB. Other than that, I am sold on WP7 as an OS. Wonder if it could be ported to the DHD? ;)

  • ordog botond

    cant wait to get my hands on a lumia 800

  • joe

    Do you really want a single core phone with an ugly ui, for two years!…thats asinine!

    • Your phone just got smoked by Windows Phone. You don’t believe me I know, go to any Microsoft Store and compete.

  • John

    For me Nokia got this wrong they have come back to the game and with a nice handset which i would love to try but free on a £30 month 2 year contract is not going to bring people back….

    They have only got a foot back in the door …

  • I think they could pick up sales of WM7 from the Xbox market as well, with the Xbox companion due out and the new dashboard update due on 6th Dec you will be able to control and stream content from your phone. And the Xbox live integration is far superior than any hybrid Android or iPhone app.